A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
